Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 3.765453 4.410137 5.123475 5.970130 6.946407 8.035603 9.341658
2025-10-12 2.789688 3.661809 4.731368 6.133964 7.918733 10.107338 12.987415
2025-10-19 2.190365 3.162677 4.461366 6.309613 8.856780 12.225646 16.997487
2025-10-26 1.743742 2.734253 4.157936 6.330150 9.531826 14.041909 20.830982
2025-11-02 1.374291 2.321173 3.774538 6.133443 9.822025 15.311795 24.022775
2025-11-09 1.079515 1.952974 3.377083 5.822605 9.856779 16.164950 26.656527
2025-11-16 0.892664 1.719290 3.142863 5.714780 10.165228 17.436253 30.041748
2025-11-23 0.754241 1.540087 2.963970 5.659803 10.533614 18.820788 33.738693
2025-11-30 0.684105 1.472085 2.966138 5.914999 11.456567 21.215524 39.370140
2025-12-07 0.596750 1.352529 2.851087 5.931961 11.944137 22.898238 43.933856
2025-12-14 0.519268 1.237591 2.724654 5.903864 12.335237 24.437755 48.387423
2025-12-21 0.456360 1.141446 2.619407 5.898960 12.763155 26.079265 53.184028
2025-12-28 0.443481 1.158267 2.758109 6.427461 14.342346 30.113771 63.020579
2026-01-04 0.405464 1.108941 2.746204 6.634938 15.293097 33.036954 71.028552
2026-01-11 0.371245 1.062086 2.732182 6.835352 16.254140 36.084002 79.604536
2026-01-18 0.330682 0.990395 2.647860 6.861442 16.835055 38.407146 86.933683
2026-01-25 0.283130 0.889480 2.475036 6.650634 16.851391 39.533290 91.858483
2026-02-01 0.236935 0.781698 2.265511 6.315721 16.530921 39.885751 95.142524
2026-02-08 0.206963 0.714516 2.150014 6.199515 16.715412 41.375063 101.074176
2026-02-15 0.183216 0.660894 2.061750 6.140234 17.030582 43.191530 107.919251
2026-02-22 0.173877 0.651326 2.095679 6.415643 18.227368 47.187595 120.172709
2026-03-01 0.157141 0.613256 2.040217 6.433951 18.757037 49.639580 129.014888
2026-03-08 0.140922 0.573095 1.971430 6.403637 19.153142 51.804842 137.374420